prediction market post-mortems & orderbook audits
forensic audits deconstructing real-world prediction market events (Polymarket & Kalshi)—comparing satellite telemetry, SEC filings, and orderbook microstructures against narrative noise.
Strait of Hormuz Transit Drop Post-Mortem
Deconstructing Polymarket Market 2260119 (Strait of Hormuz Commercial Vessel Transit Drop >15%), analyzing AIS satellite telemetry, media sentiment divergence (Δ = -0.3600), and short Brent Crude alpha.
/ post-mortem archive
all market audits & post-mortems
Strait of Hormuz Transit Drop Post-Mortem
Institutional Risk Audit of Market 2260119: AIS Satellite Telemetry vs Media Noise
Deconstructing Polymarket Market 2260119 (Strait of Hormuz Commercial Vessel Transit Drop >15%), analyzing AIS satellite telemetry, media sentiment divergence (Δ = -0.3600), and short Brent Crude alpha.
OpenAI Open-Weights Model Release Speculation Post-Mortem
Deconstructing Polymarket 2231908: Developer Metadata False Positives & Multi-Asset Alpha
Deconstructing Polymarket Market 2231908 (OpenAI Open-Weights Model Release), analyzing developer metadata false positives, Sybil LOB concentration (HHI 5,680), and RNDR-USD short alpha.
US July Flash Composite PMI Post-Mortem
Forensic Audit of Market 2248102: Macro Survey Blindspots & Physical Alt-Data Alpha
Forensic post-mortem of Polymarket Market 2248102 (July Flash PMI > 53.0), analyzing macro survey blindspots, diesel & port telemetry divergence, and multi-asset cross-asset fade playbooks.
Prediction Market Disinformation Events Post-Mortem
Forensic Microstructure Audit, Causal Graph Divergence, and Multi-Asset Quantitative Alpha
Forensic microstructure audit analyzing Suez Canal false-flag grounding and Fed Rate Decision manipulation events, detailing limit order book sweeps and multi-asset fade strategies.
MicroStrategy 32 BTC Sale Post-Mortem
Forensic Analysis of Polymarket Market 2218491: SEC Disclosure Lags & Oracle Arbitrage
Forensic analysis of Polymarket Market 2218491: MicroStrategy's 32 BTC Sale, SEC Disclosure Lags, and Oracle Governance Arbitrage.
Ronaldo World Cup Market Post-Mortem
Sentiment Market Microstructure & Event Resolution Analysis
Quantitative analysis and market resolution dynamics of the 2026 FIFA World Cup sentiment markets: A case study of the Ronaldo emotional response contract.